Poin-poin penting:
Imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah zona euro naik mencapai tertinggi dalam beberapa minggu pada hari Senin, setelah adanya kenaikan imbal hasil Treasury AS karena pedagang menantikan data ekonomi penting dan pemilihan presiden AS yang akan datang.
Imbal hasil obligasi 10 tahun Jerman naik 5 basis poin, mencapai 2,338%, tertinggi dalam lebih dari tiga minggu.
Begitu juga, imbal hasil Treasury 10 tahun AS meningkat 5 basis poin menjadi 4,2881%, mendekati puncaknya akhir Juli, mencerminkan harapan pedagang yang terus tumbuh untuk pendekatan Federal Reserve AS yang lebih terkendali di tengah indikasi ekonomi yang kuat.
Sentimen pasar juga berubah seiring meningkatnya prospek untuk pemerintah yang dipimpin Republik, di mana banyak yang melihat kemenangan Trump dan mayoritas Republik sebagai pemicu inflasi, yang didorong oleh kebijakan seperti tarif yang lebih tinggi.
Pandangan ini telah mengangkat nilai dolar dan memperkuat imbal hasil Treasury AS.
'Trump's victory will mean a much more inflationary situation in US & a severe hit to economic growth,' says @paulkrugman.
— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18News) October 18, 2024
He tells @parikshit that #DonaldTrump stuck to an orthodox Republican policy the first time, now he's 'promising radical stuff'. #USElection2024 #USA pic.twitter.com/0EG7BRdsxM
Imbal hasil obligasi dua tahun Jerman, yang terkait erat dengan ekspektasi suku bunga zona euro, sedikit meningkat 3 basis poin menjadi 2,173%.
Sementara itu, di Italia, imbal hasil obligasi 10 tahun naik 4,5 basis poin menjadi 3,551%, memperlebar perbedaan antara imbal hasil Italia dan Jerman menjadi 120,95 basis poin, menandakan kekhawatiran yang semakin besar tentang stabilitas ekonomi Italia dibandingkan Jerman.
Dengan pekan yang dipenuhi laporan ekonomi penting, pasar menunggu data PDB kuartal ketiga zona euro dan angka inflasi, yang akan diakhiri dengan laporan pekerjaan AS pada hari Jumat.
Pembaruan ini bisa sangat mempengaruhi keputusan suku bunga di kedua sisi Atlantik.
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