Poin-poin Penting:
EUR/USD rebound pada hari Senin, naik dari level rendah baru-baru ini sekitar 1.0782 tetapi tetap di bawah rata-rata pergerakan sederhana 200 hari di 1.0809.
Gambar: EURUSD menunjukkan konsolidasi di sekitar 1.0809, menunggu sinyal breakout untuk arah tren potensial, seperti yang terlihat di aplikasi VT Markets.
Rata-rata pergerakan menunjukkan momentum yang minimal dalam arah apapun dalam jangka pendek.
Karena kurangnya pergerakan yang signifikan, trader mungkin mempertimbangkan untuk mencari sinyal breakout atau breakdown dari rentang sempit saat ini, karena ini bisa menandakan awal dari sebuah tren.
Kenaikan dolar bertepatan dengan kenaikan yields AS di berbagai jatuh tempo, kontras dengan penurunan yields obligasi Jerman.
Penurunan terbaru dalam yields obligasi Jerman mungkin menunjukkan bahwa zona euro akan menghadapi beberapa ketidakpastian. Pemilihan presiden AS yang akan datang menambah kompleksitas pada EUR/USD.
Para analis memperkirakan bahwa Fed, dengan probabilitas 98% untuk pemotongan 25 basis poin bulan depan, mungkin akan menghentikan pelonggaran lebih lanjut jika data kuat terus berlanjut, sementara sikap Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) tetap terbelah.
So far, European Central Bank officials have mostly succeeded in steering the euro-zone economy toward 2% inflation with a single voice. But as they circle in on their target, views on what to do when are set to diverge https://t.co/9J0yhhuOrK
— Bloomberg (@business) October 28, 2024
Data inflasi dan PDB Eropa dapat mendorong ECB menuju pelonggaran tambahan dalam beberapa bulan mendatang, langkah yang didukung oleh tanda-tanda stagnasi ekonomi dan komentar hati-hati dari ECB.
Saat kedua sisi Atlantik menghadapi ketidakpastian ekonomi, Dolar mungkin tetap mendapatkan dukungan dalam jangka pendek hingga menengah, terutama jika hasil pemilihan presiden AS memperkuat kepercayaan pasar terhadap kebijakan yang ada.
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